BC TOD Valuation Calculator
Most BC investors estimate SkyTrain corridor upside by gut. The data is mostly there: distance is GIS-public, upzoning is legislated, absorption is FVREB-published. This calculator wires those three signals into a single annualized-return estimate so you can compare a Willoughby parcel against a Carvolth parcel against a Cloverdale comp on a like-for-like basis.
Corridor premium is not magic. It’s distance × upzoning × absorption, time-discounted to today. The market just hasn’t systematically priced it yet.
A note on calibration
The factor weights below are educated-guess calibrations, drawn from publicly-available comparable corridor data (Brentwood Town Centre, Marpole) and academic urban-economics literature. They are NOT empirical regression coefficients fitted to a Surrey-Langley dataset — that dataset will not exist until 2030+. They are intended to give a structured, typed, comparable first-pass estimate of corridor upside, not a binding appraisal. For a binding valuation on a specific property, engage a licensed BC appraiser.
The math is fully traceable in the “Reproduce this number” pane below the calculator — including the per-factor cell-by-cell contribution. Disagree with a factor weight? Override the upzoning factor (1.0-3.0) directly, and the calculator updates accordingly.
Calculate
Upzoning factor: 1.0 = no Bill 47 entitlement; 1.2 = end-user upside only; 1.5 = moderate developer / assembler upside (Tier 3 4-5x FAR uplift); 2.0-3.0 = Tier 1 / Tier 2 maximal upside on assemblage-grade lots. See /codex#bc.tod.transit_oriented_development.
- Distance tier
- Tier 2 (200-400m)
- Estimated future value at station opening
- $1,144,125
- Premium over current value
- +$144,125
- Annualized return over horizon
- +3.42%
- Factors applied
- 1.130 × 1.50 × 0.750 × 0.900
Estimate only — not an appraisal, not investment advice, not a representation of value on any specific BC property. The calculator applies a structured framework with documented (and disputable) factor weights to a user-supplied current value. For a binding valuation, engage a licensed BC appraiser. For transaction advice, talk to Bronson.
Reproduce this number6 steps
| Step | Amount |
|---|---|
| DistanceFactor at 300m → Tier 2 (200-400m): 1.130 (bc.tod.transit_oriented_development) | $1,130,000.00 |
| × UpzoneFactor (Bill 47 FAR uplift, capped 1.0-3.0): 1.50 | $1,695,000.00 |
| × AbsorptionFactor (months-of-inventory 8 mo): 0.750 | $1,271,250.00 |
| × TimeFactor (4 yrs to opening, 5%/yr discount beyond 2-yr front-run window): 0.900 | $1,144,125.00 |
| Premium over current value (Future − Current) | $144,125.00 |
| Annualized return = (Future / Current)^(1/4.00) − 1 | $0.03 |
| Total | $1,144,125.00 |
Computed from the BC Real Estate Codex · CC BY 4.0
Year-by-year trajectory
Linear interpolation from current value to future value across the time-to-opening horizon. Real-world corridor pricing tends to back-load into the final 12-18 months pre-opening; this linear path gives you a defensible budgeting trajectory but the true distribution is steeper at the end.
| Year (from now) | Modelled value (linear) | Cumulative gain |
|---|---|---|
| Year 0 | $1,000,000 | $0 |
| Year 1 | $1,036,031 | $36,031 |
| Year 2 | $1,072,063 | $72,063 |
| Year 3 | $1,108,094 | $108,094 |
| Year 4 | $1,144,125 | $144,125 |
Sensitivity
How sensitive is the estimate to small changes in each input? A model whose output flips dramatically on small input changes is brittle; a robust estimate moves smoothly. Here’s ±20% on Distance, ±0.5 on Upzoning, and ±3 months on Absorption applied to your current scenario.
| Variant | Future value | Annualized return | Δ vs. base |
|---|---|---|---|
| Distance −20% | $1,144,125 | 3.42% | +$0 |
| Distance +20% | $1,144,125 | 3.42% | +$0 |
| Upzone −0.5 | $762,750 | -6.55% | -$381,375 |
| Upzone +0.5 | $1,525,500 | 11.14% | +$381,375 |
| Absorption −3 mo | $1,262,483 | 6.00% | +$118,358 |
| Absorption +3 mo | $1,046,057 | 1.13% | -$98,068 |
The framework — V = f(Distance, Upzone, Absorption)
The calculator implements a multiplicative model:
V_future = V_current × DistanceFactor × UpzoneFactor × AbsorptionFactor × TimeFactor
- DistanceFactor — piecewise 1.20 / 1.13 / 1.07 / 1.03 / 1.00 across 0-200m / 200-400m / 400-800m / 800-1200m / >1200m. Reflects the empirical 15-25% / 10-15% / 5-10% per-Tier premium from comparable corridors.
- UpzoneFactor — user input, capped at 1.0-3.0. Reflects Bill 47 FAR uplift on the lot. Owner-occupier upside only ≈ 1.0-1.2; developer / assembler upside ≈ 1.5-3.0.
- AbsorptionFactor — 1 / (1 + (months_of_inventory / 12) × 0.5). Sellers’ markets (low MoI) accelerate premium realisation; buyers’ markets (high MoI) decelerate it. Bounded above at 1.0.
- TimeFactor — 1.0 within 2 years of opening (the front-running window); discounts 5%/year beyond that, floored at 0.50.
The model is intentionally simple. Real corridor pricing dynamics are more complex — there are interaction effects between distance and upzoning (Tier 1 commands a disproportionate developer premium), absorption can shift mid-horizon, and macro cycles (rate shocks, demand collapses) suspend the corridor premium for 12-24 months at a time. But a simple, transparent, structured framework you can override is more useful to a transacting buyer than a black-box model with five-decimal-precision estimates and no auditable assumptions.
Related
Verified sources (3)Click to expand
Every claim on this page is sourced to a primary government, regulator, or industry-association URL. We re-verify quarterly; the verification dates below show when each source was last confirmed against the live government page.
- BC Governmentretrieved 2026-05-09Bill 47 — Housing Statutes (Transit-Oriented Areas) Amendment Act, 2023https://www.bclaws.gov.bc.ca/civix/document/id/lc/billscur/4th42nd:gov47-3
- BC Governmentretrieved 2026-05-09Transit-Oriented Development Areas — Province of British Columbiahttps://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/housing-tenancy/local-governments-and-housing/housing-initiatives/transit-oriented-development-areas
- BC Governmentretrieved 2026-05-09· published 2023-11-08New legislation requires homes near transithttps://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2023HOUS0153-001706
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